Monday, December 3, 2012

As DC bickers over 'fiscal cliff,' markets rumble

11 hrs.

The economic damage from Super Storm Sandy will show up in November?s jobs report and elsewhere in the coming week, but the markets will stay fixated on Washington?s ?fiscal cliff? talks.

The cliff negotiations between the White House and Congressional Republicans seem to be going sideways with no progress on taxes or spending cuts, and markets have been somewhat patient so far with political posturing.

Stocks were higher on the week but ended mixed for the month of November, with the Dow down a half percent at 13,025; the S&P up 0.3 percent at 1416, and the Nasdaq up 1 percent at 3010, on the back of gains in some big tech names.?

?Sandy is beginning to influence the jobs data and many other sorts of data for the next couple of months ? just at a time when the market is uncertain about the fiscal cliff, and the lingering uncertainties about Europe and China and elsewhere,? said Ed Keon, portfolio manager at Quantitative Management Associates. ?Now we have these other uncertainties and the data is going to be less relevant than normal. We are just going to have to adjust.??

But Keon does not believe that makes for a negative market environment, and he also expects the fiscal cliff to be resolved. The cliff is the expiration of dozens of tax breaks and the onset of automatic spending cuts if Congress does not act.

?I have actually been a small net buyer over the past couple of weeks, not a huge buyer. I have been buying for some of my funds,? Keon said, adding he saw some good values when the market sold off in the days after the election.

NBC?Politics:?Geithner urges Republican leaders to offer ideas on averting fiscal cliff

Economists expect to see the impact of Sandy in Monday?s ISM manufacturing data, construction spending and car sales. Auto sales should see a positive impact, as tree damage and flooding destroyed many east coast vehicles. Other data have shown negative impacts, particularly jobless claims for the past three weeks. Chain-store sales for November were also affected, as was Friday?s report of personal spending.

Auto sales could surge above a 15 million annualized selling rate in November, up from 14.3 million on improvements in housing and pent-up demand, in addition to the Sandy replacement cars.

As for Friday?s jobs report, the consensus forecast among Wall Street economists is that 100,000 nonfarm payrolls were created in November and the unemployment rate stays unchanged at 7.9 percent, according to Thomson Reuters. That is down from 171,000 payrolls in October.

But some economists believe the report could be much weaker. Barclays Capital economists expect just 50,000 jobs were created in November, and the unemployment rate crept up to 8 percent.

?From our point of view, this is only a Sandy effect. This is not a fiscal cliff issue,? said Barclays economist Michael Gapen. ?You had a very large rise in jobless claims two weeks after Sandy hit.? Gapen said that follows a pattern in claims seen after other major storms.

?In the month after landfall is where there?s the most distortion,? said Gapin. ?Claims, payrolls, retail sales, industrial production.?

Gapen said fourth-quarter GDP is now tracking at 1.8 percent, but his forecast is still for 2.5 percent. ?Somewhere in here we should see the low point, and we should start to tick higher,? he said of the fourth-quarter economic reports.

Gapen expects first-quarter GDP to grow by 1.5 percent, due to the impact of fiscal tightening and higher taxes. ?We expect an outcome on the fiscal cliff that?s not overly disruptive to either markets or the economy. We look for about $200 billion of the $650 billion in tightening to go into effect. That would take about 1 percent off of growth in the first quarter,? he said.

Keon said one reason he sees stocks as a good value is that he sees the economy gaining some traction. He pointed to the improvement in housing and the fact that household balance sheets have improved.

He is also not worried about the pending impact of tax changes on stocks. When the capital gains tax and dividend taxes were first cut, he said the benefit to stocks was only about two percent. He also noted that only about half of stocks are owned by taxable investors.

Both capital gains and dividend tax rates are 15 percent, and if tax breaks are left to expire the highest capital gains tax rate would revert to 23.8 percent and the highest dividend rate could be 43.4 percent. Those would be the levels on the highest income earners, when including the new 3.8 percent Affordable Care Act tax on the top income brackets.

?With a little bit of traction in the jobs market, a little bit of traction in the economy and a little bit of improvement in consumer confidence, we have a better chance in 2013 of seeing growth a little bit better than people were expecting, rather than worse,? he said.

Keon said the trend of companies paying special dividends is likely a positive though there?s not enough data on the trend to do quantitative analysis. ?In general, a focus on being creative in ways to reward shareholders is a good thing,? he said. Companies have been rushing to offer special dividends to shareholders ahead of year end and the expected higher dividend tax rates.

?Usually what happens is you get a boost from announcing the special dividend. But once the dividend is paid out you get a subsequent drop,? he said.

What to Watch:

Monday

  • Monthly auto sales
  • 10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing
  • 10:00 a.m. Construction spending

Wednesday

  • 08:15 a.m. ADP employment (November)
  • 08:30 a.m. Productivity and costs
  • 10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing
  • 10:00 a.m. Factory orders

Thursday

  • 08:30 a.m. Weekly jobless claims

Friday

  • 08:30 am Employment report
  • 09:55 am Consumer sentiment

Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/business/stormy-weather-markets-washington-bickers-1C7376578

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Sunday, December 2, 2012

The Daily Exchange ? Long distance relationships .

They?re worth it. Instead of liking someone for their looks, you actually get to know them first. I think having webcam dates and falling asleep on skype is really cute. You have to trust in your partner, which a lot of relationships lack. But, the only thing I hate about long distant relationships is not being able to physically be there for the other person, not being able to hold them.

Source: http://carlomiguel.tumblr.com/post/37011390964

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During each Chiefs practice, Jovan Belcher

RolePlayGateway is a site built by a couple roleplayers who wanted to give a little something back to the roleplay community. The site has no intention of earning any profit, and is paid for out of their own pockets.

If you appreciate what they do, feel free to donate your spare change to help feed them on the weekends. After selecting the amount you want to donate from the menu, you can continue by clicking on PayPal logo.

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RolePlayGateway/~3/9DuvuaYJHYc/viewtopic.php

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Lung cancer patients with pockets of resistance prolong disease control by 'weeding the garden'

ScienceDaily (Dec. 1, 2012) ? The central skill of cancer is its ability to mutate -- that's how it became cancerous in the first place. Once it's started down that path, it's not so difficult for a cancer cell to mutate again and again. This means that different tumors within a single patient or even different areas within the same cancerous deposit may develop different genetic characteristics. This heterogeneity helps cancer escape control by new, targeted cancer therapy drugs.

Two of these targeted drugs are crizotinib and erlotinib -- they do wonders for the patients whose cancers depend on the basic mutations that these drugs exploit. That is, until pockets of the cancer mutate again, pivoting their dependence away from the original, targeted mutation. Due to continuing mutation, the unfortunate reality is that while crizotinib and erlotinib extend patients' lives, the drugs eventually, inevitably, inexorably stop working.

A University of Colorado Cancer Center study published in the December issue of the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer's (IASLC) Journal of Thoracic Oncology shows that when pockets of resistant cancer develop, it's often possible to zap these resistant pockets with focused, targeted radiation while continuing crizotinib or erlotinib to maintain control of the majority of the disease that continues to depend on the primary mutation.

"We liken this to weeding the garden," says Andrew Weickhardt, MD, senior clinical fellow at the CU Cancer Center. "In nearly half of patients, when these drugs stop working, they stop working only in a limited number of sites. Given how well these people tolerate the medication, it made sense to us to treat these isolated spots with radiation (or in one case, surgery), and continue the same drug, which was obviously working elsewhere."

This study of 65 patients showed that continuing either crizotinib or erlotinib after the treatment of resistant pockets was associated with more than half a year of additional cancer control.

The benefit was especially robust when the metastatic lung cancer progressed in the brain. The brain is unfortunately a common site of progression because the molecules of crizotinib and erlotinib have difficulty in passing from the bloodstream into the brain, across the so-called blood-brain barrier. Cancer cells sit in the brain as in a robber's cave, hidden away from the drugs.

"We expect using radiation to zap these pockets of cancer in the brain, and then continuing the targeted therapy to become the standard of care," says CU Cancer Center investigator, Ross Camidge, MD, PhD, director of the thoracic oncology clinical program at University of Colorado Hospital.

There was also a smaller but still significant progression-free survival benefit for using this approach in patients whose cancers progressed first outside the brain.

If and when pockets of crizotinib- or erlotinib-resistant lung cancer are detected, "Clinicians should consider using radiation in the body and especially in the brain to weed the garden while continuing the drug, when there is good ongoing control of the cancer in other sites in the body," Weickhardt says.

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Story Source:

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by University of Colorado Denver. The original article was written by Garth Sundem.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.


Journal Reference:

  1. Andrew J. Weickhardt, Benjamin Scheier, Joseph Malachy Burke, Gregory Gan, Xian Lu, Paul A. Bunn, Dara L. Aisner, Laurie E. Gaspar, Brian D. Kavanagh, Robert C. Doebele, D. Ross Camidge. Local Ablative Therapy of Oligoprogressive Disease Prolongs Disease Control by Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors in Oncogene-Addicted Non?Small-Cell Lung Cancer. Journal of Thoracic Oncology, 2012; 7 (12): 1807 DOI: 10.1097/JTO.0b013e3182745948

Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended to provide medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/most_popular/~3/UnbebVxgc4w/121201085913.htm

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Saturday, December 1, 2012

Estate-Tax Plan Divides Democrats (WSJ)

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DRIVEN: Lexus Hybrid Boosts Drivability Along with MPGs

The trouble with hybrids is that they can be a bit like health food. You know it's good for you, but it can be so boring.

Thankfully, the Lexus CT 200h manages to avoid this trap, offering a driving experience that is nearly as impressive as the gas-mileage numbers. This sophisticated compact hatchback manages to have all the advantages of a hybrid, while remaining first and foremost a fun car to drive. Plus, with a starting price of only $29,120, the CT also represents the least expensive way to get into a Lexus.

The Lexus hybrid provides a premium experience while helping to clear the air. (Photo: Lexus) Sharing the same powertrain as its Toyota Prius cousin, the CT boasts an impressive 42 combined mpg, stacking up well against the Prius? 50 mpg. A 1.8-liter four-cylinder gas engine and two electric motors crank out 134 horsepower, so while the CT certainly isn't going to be the fastest off the line, its nimble handling, low stance and finely tuned suspension makes the CT a very satisfying drive.

That is, as long as you don?t set it to ?Eco? mode.

As the name would suggest, ?Eco? offers the best gas mileage, but it leads to maddeningly slow acceleration and very light steering. Everything feels better in ?Normal? or ?Sport,? stiffening up the suspension and boosting the power, while still scrimping on gas. Lexus also offers the CT with an F Sport package, which adds body modifications and a tuned up suspension, but doesn't do much for the power, so it's probably not worth the higher price tag.

With its low, aggressive stance, standard 17-inch wheels and softly angular curves, the CT has a lot of curb appeal. The look is distinctly Lexus, but at the same time evokes the designs of European hatchbacks by Volvo and the erstwhile Saab.

The premium interior boasts a full change of upscale features. (Photo: Lexus) While the hybrid aspects of the CT lean toward the practical, the interior pushes things back into the luxury department. A standard model comes loaded with heated side mirrors, keyless ignition, Bluetooth with audio streaming, plus a six-speaker sound system. My test model came with the Premium trim, which added a sunroof, an upgraded 10-speaker sound system, rain-sensing wipers, leather upholstery, a back-up camera and plenty of other goodies.

Just as the body style leans towards European sophistication, the interior follows suit, offering soft-touch surfaces and minimalist style in place of Lexus? typical wood-laden opulence. The radio and navigation cluster is a bit busy though, and the shifter, which sits high and angled on the dashboard, is awkward to use.

Lexus? excellent Remote Touch controller makes up for the any dashboard drawbacks. Essentially a mouse that sits within easy reach of the driver, the Remote Touch makes the navigation and computer controls remarkably quick and easy to access.

With its sporty styling, upscale refinement and hybrid technology, the Lexus CT carves out a nice niche for itself. While it can?t keep up with something like the BMW 1 Series in speed or handling, it certainly competes in luxury, style and affordability, making the CT an intriguing choice. Plus there?s the whole great gas mileage thing.
Details

Vehicle type: Five-passenger, four-door hatchback, front-wheel drive.
Engine: Hybrid drive with 1.8-liter inline-4 and two electric motors, 134 horsepower at 5,200 rpm, 142 pound-feet of torque at 4,000 rpm;
Transmission: Continuously variable automatic.
Wheelbase: 102.4 inches.
Overall length: 170.1 inches.
Curb weight: 3,146 pounds.
EPA mileage rating: 43 city, 40 highway.

Source: http://automotive.speedtv.com/article/driven-lexus-hybrid-boosts-drivability-along-with-mpgs/

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Weak economy keeps adult kids in the house

8 hrs.

You raise them, you educate them and you expect them to go out into the world. But they keep coming back.?

The recession and weak recovery appears to be keeping many adult children from getting a home of their own, and that could have implications for the housing industry?s recovery.

A Census Bureau report released Wednesday found that between 2007 and 2011 there was a steady increase in the percentage of adults living in someone else?s house ? and that increase has mostly been driven by adult children moving in with mom and dad.

In 2011, Census Bureau researchers found that 17.9 percent of people 18 and older, or 41.2 million people, lived in a house in which they weren?t the head of the household or that person?s spouse or significant other. That?s up from 16 percent in 2007, before the nation went into recession.

About half of those people were adult children living with their parents, while the rest were other relatives or unrelated people such as a group of roommates.

But Suzanne Macartney, an analyst in the poverty statistics branch of the Census Bureau and a co-author of the report, said the only group that saw an increase between 2007 and 2011 were adults moving in with their parents.

The nation was officially in recession from December of 2007 until June of 2009, but economic growth has largely been slow and unsteady in the years since.

The Census data runs through 2011. This year, economists have seen some signs that the housing industry is starting to recover, although there have been some bumps in the road.

There also have been more recent signs that housing formation is picking up, which would be good news for the economy and perhaps offer a sign that some young adults are moving out of mom and dad?s house. But economists caution that the improvements seen so far are not yet?enough to offset the shortfall caused by the Great Recession and weak recovery.

If?a significant number of adult children continue to bunk with mom and dad, economics caution that?that could slow the housing industry?s recovery because those people won?t be out buying or renting homes of their own.

?It does have a negative impact,? said Joel Naroff, economist with Naroff Ecoomic Advisors. ?The question is why is it happening.?

One potential reason: They may not have a paycheck to pay the rent or mortgage.

The unemployment rate for 20- to 24-year-olds was 13.2 percent in October, far above the overall rate of 7.9 percent. For 25- to 34-year-olds, it was 8.3 percent, still higher than for the general population.

Naroff said another major factor weighing on young adults is student loan debt, which is approaching $1 trillion by some estimates. The burden of those monthly payments may be keeping some younger adults from paying the rent on their own, let alone buying a house, even if they do have a job.

?You have a lot of the kids coming out with debt, and they?re not going out and buying houses, and that may be pushing out the whole process,? he said.

Naroff said it?s not yet clear how much of the problem is a cyclical one, caused by the high unemployment rate among young adults, and how much is a structural problem caused the increased burden of student loan debts leaving less money for things like homes.

If it?s mainly an issue of unemployment, he believes it could resolve itself in the next few years. But if the burden of student loan debts are keeping people from buying homes, that could be a longer-term problem.

It?s an issue he?s intimately familiar with. Naroff has a son who is graduating from college in a couple weeks. In the short term, Naroff said his son plans to do some graduate work. But after that, he?ll have to find a job.

?I?m already readying my extra bedroom for him,? Naroff quipped.

Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economywatch/mom-dad-im-still-home-weak-economy-keeps-adult-kids-1C7291460

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